Temporal and Spatial change in the sensitivity of Cassava yield loss risk to drought severity under global warming in Nigeria

Photo by Amit Kumar Srivastava

To date, probabilistic estimation of yield changes under a given drought of specific severity has not been conducted in Nigeria. This study fills the gap by assessing the risk of crop (Maize and Cassava) yield loss under droughts in Nigeria in a probabilistic manner. Specifically, we address the following scientific questions:

  1. What are the possible changes in crop yield in response to an individual drought of specific severity? Understanding the distribution of possible outcomes of crop yield under a given drought can help decision-makers and insurers in selecting appropriate strategies based on the likelihood of different outcomes.
  2. Does yield loss risk grow linearly with increase in drought severity? Examining yield sensitivity to droughts of various severity can better inform targeted adaptation and mitigations.
  3. How will the likelihood of yield reduction change in the future?


  • Amit Kumar Srivastava
  • Bahareh Kamali
  • Andrej Ceglar
  • Soora Naresh Kumar
  • Wenzhi Zeng
  • Thomas Gaiser
  • Frank Ewert
  • Jaber Rahimi-
  • Manmeet Singh
Bahareh Kamali
Scientist and lecturer